Wednesday, June 9, 2010

WHERE WILL THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS BE, IN JAPAN OR IN UK?

In my view, what's happening in Europe is particularly important for investors to be aware of and understand.


                       The Greek government's official request for a rescue package from its European partners and the IMF. The European Union and the International Monetary Fund established a $1 trillion rescue package for member countries facing financial crisis and calm fears of the markets. But it didn't do. Instead, investors and speculators rushed out of Greek debt, driving up two year borrowing costs for the Greek government to over 18 percent.After that, the grim outlook for Greece sent investors and speculators looking at the next likely victim, Portugal.

                       Portugal's debt was aggressively sold and downgrades soon followed. With the Portugal domino starting to wobble, Spain came under the spotlight. As a result Spanish bonds were dumped and S&P downgraded Spain's credit rating and warnings of possible further downgrades. All of this sent shockwaves through global financial markets. We must remember the Financial Crisis in 2008 EEUU, Dubai crisis in 2009, and right now, the European Union Crisis. They are as a lot crisis in a short time.

                        Meanwhile, the European crisis has served to Spain and Portugal to adjust their budgets, and they are rethinking their macro economics goals in the long run.The $1 trillion rescue package was a show of force with the purpose of achieving stability in the euro. The EU and FMI went all in, throwing massive funds and dangerous guarantees at the debt problems, and printing money to support it. But it seems that not enough and the euro is in devaluation mode and so is the debt of all euro members. Perhaps a death spiral has begun of the European Monetary Union.

                        In the other hand, has been a curious fact that the warnings about a possible debt crisis in Spain and Portugal left from London by comments from specialists in the Financial Times. It's curious because experts have already warned about UK, where could be the next wobbly domino and neither Spain nor Portugal. They have perceived the most rapidly deteriorating debt load in UK since the financial crisis in 2008.In fact, United Kingdom is the holder of the biggest budget deficit of the G-7 world. As UK as Japan have had an aggressive growth of their debt since 2008.

                       The Bank of International Settlements has registered the following indicators; The Government Debt as percentages of GDP of Japan was 167% in 2007, now is 197% and expect a 204% ended 2011. United Kingdom had a 47% in 2007, now is 83% and expects a 94% ended 2011. It will be an increment of 100% in only four years.The euro has now 1$ trillion as support, how much could has the Pound? How much money could have the Yen as support?
Also is very important to say that Japan is the country holds the most government debt in the world as a percentage of its GDP it’s 197%, The United States has a 92% and projected to 2011 will be in 100%

                       In conclusion, I believe that neither Spain nor Portugal will be the next, I am thinking that it will be between United Kingdom or Japan.



CyberSpyOne.